When the Houston Rockets visit the Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday, November 24, 2025, it won’t just be a clash of records—it’ll be a chess match shaped by absence, momentum, and the quiet power of home-court psychology. The Rockets, at 11-4, are flying high with the league’s top offense, but the Phoenix Suns, at 11-7, are quietly terrifying—especially when playing in front of their own fans. And with Kevin Durant sidelined, everything changes.
Why the Spread Feels Wrong
The Rockets are favored by 6.5 points across the board, with moneylines hovering around -240 for Houston and +195 for Phoenix. But here’s the thing: the Suns have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 home games. That’s not luck. That’s a pattern. And it’s not just against bad teams—Phoenix has beaten Minnesota, San Antonio, and Portland—all of whom are either playoff-bound or in the thick of the play-in race. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense? Ranked 13th in the league. Not bad, but not elite. Not when you’re facing a Suns team that’s top-10 in both offensive and defensive rating.
And then there’s the head-to-head history. In 47 previous meetings, the Rockets have won 29 games—mostly on the road. But here’s the twist: when the game’s in Phoenix, the Suns have won 18 times. And in the last nine home games against Houston, Phoenix covered the spread by 9.5 points or more in eight of them. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a blueprint.
The Durant Effect
Kevin Durant’s absence isn’t just a loss of scoring—it’s a seismic shift in defensive focus. Without him, the Suns’ defense can’t afford to double-team Alperen Sengun. That opens lanes for Amen Thompson, who’s averaging 7.1 rebounds per game this season. With Durant gone, Thompson’s rebounding numbers could spike. And Sengun? He’s pulled down 26 boards in his last three games. He’s not just a scorer—he’s a force under the rim, and now he’s got room to breathe.
“With Durant out, Alperen Sengun becomes the focus of the Phoenix defense,” noted a Covers.com analyst. “That should give Amen Thompson a little more space to maneuver.” It’s a subtle but critical dynamic. Houston’s offense thrives on spacing, and without Durant’s gravitational pull, the Suns’ defense is forced into a tough choice: stay home on Sengun and risk Thompson driving, or help and let the Rockets’ big man carve them up inside.
Home Court, Home Advantage
The Mortgage Matchup Center isn’t just a building—it’s a fortress. The Suns average 118.25 points at home this season, and their last 11 home games have seen them cover the spread 10 times. Even more telling: Phoenix has scored under 111.5 points in their last six games against Houston. That’s not a sign of weakness—it’s a sign of control. They’re playing a slower, smarter game against the Rockets, grinding them down. And with Houston averaging 124.89 points on the road, you can bet Phoenix will try to drag this into a 110-108 slugfest.
The over/under is set at 224.5, and while Houston’s offense looks explosive, the Suns know how to slow it down. The last 11 home games against Houston? Only three went over the total. That’s a trend you can’t ignore. And if the Suns hold Houston below 115, they’ll win by 5, 6, even 7 points—just enough to cover the spread.
Betting Trends That Matter
Public betting is lopsided: 63% of wagers are on the Rockets. That’s a classic trap. When the public leans hard on the team with the better record, sharp money often fades them. And here, the sharp money is on Phoenix. Covers.com explicitly recommends Suns +6.5 (-110) as their top pick. Their same-game parlay? Suns +6.5, Over 224.5, Dillon Brooks Over 19.5 points, Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds. That’s not random—it’s calculated.
Brooks, Houston’s gritty guard, is averaging 20.1 points over his last five games. He’s a volume shooter, and with the Suns’ defense stretched thin, he’ll get his looks. Thompson? His rebounding is undervalued. With Durant gone, Phoenix’s frontcourt is lighter. Thompson could easily grab eight or nine boards—especially if Houston’s bigs are busy battling Sengun.
And Sengun? Over 22.5 points at +104? That’s a steal. He’s scored 23, 26, and 21 in his last three games. He’s not just scoring—he’s dominating. And with Durant out, he’ll see even more touches.
What’s Next?
If the Suns cover, it’ll be their fourth straight win and a statement: they’re not just a team without Durant—they’re a team that’s evolved. If Houston wins outright, it’ll be their sixth win in seven games, proving their offense is truly elite. But here’s the reality: the Rockets have won big games, but they haven’t won *this* kind of game. The pressure of a narrow spread, the noise of a home crowd, the defensive discipline of a team with nothing to prove but everything to lose.
Phoenix isn’t just playing for pride. They’re playing for momentum. And in the NBA, momentum is currency.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Suns considered underdogs despite being 11-7?
The Rockets’ 11-4 record and league-leading offense make them the favorite on paper. But Phoenix’s elite defense, home-court dominance (10-1 ATS in last 11 home games), and the absence of Kevin Durant shift the balance. The market overvalues Houston’s win streak and underestimates Phoenix’s ability to control pace and exploit defensive mismatches.
How does Kevin Durant’s absence impact Phoenix’s chances?
Durant’s absence removes the Suns’ most reliable scorer and defensive anchor, forcing them to rely more on team play. But it also frees up defensive attention on Alperen Sengun, creating opportunities for Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks. Phoenix’s depth and defensive structure can compensate, especially in a slower, physical game.
Is the over/under of 224.5 a good bet?
It’s a toss-up, but history leans under. Phoenix has gone under in 8 of their last 11 home games against Houston. The Suns are masters of grinding games down, and Houston’s defense isn’t strong enough to prevent that. If the game stays under 111 points for Phoenix, it’ll likely stay under the total.
Why is Alperen Sengun a key player to watch?
Sengun has averaged 23.3 points and 10.7 rebounds in his last three games. With Durant out, Phoenix’s defense must focus on him, which opens driving lanes for Houston’s guards. He’s also a high-usage post player who thrives in isolation—exactly the kind of matchup Phoenix struggles with without their star forward.
What’s the historical edge between these two teams?
In 47 all-time meetings, Houston has won 29 games, but only 18 of those wins came in Phoenix. The Suns have dominated at home, covering the spread in 8 of the last 9 home games against the Rockets. The average total in these matchups is 225.96—almost exactly where the line sits now.
Should I bet on Amen Thompson’s rebounds?
Yes, especially at Over 7.5. With Durant out, Phoenix’s frontcourt is thinner, and Sengun will draw double-teams. Thompson, a 6’4” guard with elite athleticism, will capitalize on mismatches and loose balls. He’s grabbed 8+ rebounds in three of his last five games—this is a prime opportunity.